60% of Twitter Users Abandon Fail Whale After Only A Month?

According to a post on the Nielson blog (which I found through Mashable) over 60% of Twitter users quit the service after only one month. All of the staggering growth aside, it seems as though Twitter may have a hard time riding out this momentum long-term.

From the Nielson blog:

Currently, more than 60 percent of Twitter users fail to return the following month, or in other words, Twitter’s audience retention rate, or the percentage of a given month’s users who come back the following month, is currently about 40 percent. For most of the past 12 months, pre-Oprah, Twitter has languished below 30 percent retention.

image from Nielson

A 40% retention rate is not that great, especially compared to Facebook and MySpace, who years later still hover around 70%. Having people drop off the service that fast will not be good for growth or the future of Twitter.

Personally, I know a lot of people who signed up for the service, thought it was dumb and left. Part of that comes from the service being caught in the media hype-train. Part of it comes from the stigma of Twitter being the service to tell people what you just ate for lunch. Part of that comes from people who try it out and find out it's not for them.

I've become quite the Twitter fan, but having used the service for a couple of months now, I don't see it offering enough to ever catch up to something like Facebook or Myspace. Does it need to? Probably not. Right now, it's estimated to only have about 6 million users, which is still low, especially considering all the hype it's been getting. Do you think Twitter is going to make it through or is the high dropout rate proof that Twitter is the next social media fad?